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As Of Filer Filing For·On·As Docs:Size Issuer Agent 12/23/05 Petrochina Co Ltd SC 13E3/A 8:1.9M Jilin Chemical Industrial Co Ltd RR DONN… FundSuiteArc/FA |
Document/Exhibit Description Pages Size 1: SC 13E3/A Petrochina Sc 13E-3/A HTML 106K 2: EX-99.(C).1 EX-99.(C).1 Update on Potential Acquisition of HTML 170K the Minority Interests in Jilin Chemical 3: EX-99.(C).2 EX-99.(C).2 Project 517 - Preliminary Transaction HTML 19K & Valuation Considerations, Dated May 23, 2005 4: EX-99.(C).3 EX-99.(C).3 Project Chunhui, Dated June 23, 2005 HTML 285K 5: EX-99.(C).4 EX-99.(C).4 Data Book - Interim Update of Trading HTML 142K & Premium Information, Dated August 3, 2005 6: EX-99.(C).5 EX-99.(C).5 Updated Executive Timetable and Data HTML 225K Book, Dated October 14, 2005 7: EX-99.(C).6 EX-99.(C).6 Data Book, Dated October 25, 2005 HTML 88K 8: EX-99.(C).7 EX-99.(C).7 Data Book, Dated October 26, 2005 HTML 108K
Page | (sequential) | | | (alphabetic) | Top | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1st Page - Filing Submission | ||||
" | 1 Peer Group Comparables and Research Views | ||||
" | 2 Market Data Review | ||||
" | 3 Q&Z Analysis |
exv99wxcyw7 |
Valuation Multiples | Share | Market | Price / EPS | Firm | Firm Value / EBITDA | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(Dollar in Millions, Except Stock Price) | Price | Cap(a) | 2005E | 2006E | Value (b) | 2005E | 2006E | |||||||||||||||||||||
(in US$MM) | (in US$MM) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y (A Share) |
RMB 5.06 | $ | 1,932 | 81.6x | 28.9x | $ | 2,424 | 13.0x | 10.2x | |||||||||||||||||||
Chinese Cos — A shares |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co Ltd |
RMB 3.43 | 2,801 | 7.6x | 8.4x | 3,537 | 4.7x | 5.3x | |||||||||||||||||||||
China Petroleum and Chemical (Sinopec) |
3.82 | 39,940 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 62,692 | 5.0 | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Mean | 8.1x | 8.2x | 4.8x | 5.0x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y (H Share) |
HK$2.48 | $ | 1,932 | 41.6x | 14.8x | $ | 2,445 | 13.2x | 10.3x | |||||||||||||||||||
Chinese Cos — H shares |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co Ltd |
HK$2.45 | 2,801 | 5.7x | 6.2x | 3,569 | 4.7x | 5.3x | |||||||||||||||||||||
Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co |
8.55 | 2,782 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 2,609 | 4.4 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||
PetroChina |
5.80 | 133,883 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 142,112 | 4.1 | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
China Petroleum and Chemical (Sinopec) |
3.20 | 39,940 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 63,674 | 4.7 | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Mean | 7.2x | 6.8x | 4.5x | 4.4x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Median | 6.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other Asian Cos |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corp |
TW$50.00 | $ | 7,948 | 6.4x | 6.9x | $ | 9,543 | 9.5x | 9.7x | |||||||||||||||||||
Formosa Petrochemicals Corp |
TW$61.70 | 16,384 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 20,864 | 9.2 | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
National Petrochemical PCL |
THB 127.00 | 964 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 1,006 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
PTT Public Co Ltd |
THB 216.00 | 14,788 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 19,389 | 7.0 | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||
S Oil Corporation |
KRW 78,700 | 8,420 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 9,554 | 8.0 | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Showa Shell Sekiyu KK |
JPY 1,356.00 | 4,428 | 10.2 | NA | 5,262 | 6.1 | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Singapore Petroleum Company |
SGD 4.82 | 1,431 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 1,751 | 7.4 | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||
TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK |
JPY 1,238.00 | 6,356 | 27.1 | NA | 6,954 | 10.5 | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Mean | 10.5x | 7.8x | 8.0x | 8.0x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Median | 8.3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.1 |
(a) | Market cap for all classes of shares, which is sum of H-shares’ share price multipled by number of H-shares outstanding and A-shares’ share price multipled by number of legal person shares and A-shares outstanding. Firm value based on net debt as of Dec 31, 2004 from Company’s annual report | |
(b) | Firm Value equals market equity value plus straight debt, minority interest, less investments in unconsolidated affiliates and cash. | |
(c) | Share price updated as of October 25, 2005. |
1
Valuation Multiples | Share | Market | Price / EPS | Firm | Firm Value / EBITDA | |||||||||||||||||||||||
(Dollar in Millions, Except Stock Price) | Price | Cap | 2005E | 2006E | Value | 2005E | 2006E | |||||||||||||||||||||
(in US$MM) | (in US$MM) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y (H Share) |
HK$2.48 | $ | 1,932 | 41.6x | 14.8x | $ | 2,445 | 13.2x | 10.3x | |||||||||||||||||||
Implied Multiples |
HK$1.50 | $ | 1,171 | 25.2x | 8.9x | $ | 1,684 | 9.1x | 7.1x | |||||||||||||||||||
HK$1.75 | $ | 1,366 | 29.4x | 10.4x | $ | 1,879 | 10.1x | 7.9x | ||||||||||||||||||||
HK$2.00 | $ | 1,561 | 33.7x | 11.9x | $ | 2,074 | 11.2x | 8.7x | ||||||||||||||||||||
HK$2.25 | $ | 1,756 | 37.9x | 13.4x | $ | 2,270 | 12.2x | 9.5x | ||||||||||||||||||||
HK$2.50 | $ | 1,951 | 42.1x | 14.9x | $ | 2,465 | 13.3x | 10.4x | ||||||||||||||||||||
HK$2.75 | $ | 2,146 | 46.3x | 16.4x | $ | 2,660 | 14.3x | 11.2x | ||||||||||||||||||||
HK$3.00 | $ | 2,342 | 50.5x | 17.9x | $ | 2,855 | 15.4x | 12.0x |
Source: Estimates based on IBES. | ||
(a) | Market cap for all classes of shares, which is sum of H-shares’ share price multipled by number of H-shares outstanding and A-shares’ share price multipled by number of legal person shares and A-shares outstanding. Firm value based on net debt as of Dec 31, 2004 from Company’s annual report | |
(b) | Firm Value equals market equity value plus straight debt, minority interest, less investments in unconsolidated affiliates and cash. | |
(c) | Share price updated as of October 25, 2005. |
2
Research Firm | Rating | Target Price | Report Date | |||
Deutsche Bank
|
Sell | HK$1.50 | July 11, 2005 | |||
JP Morgan
|
Not Covered | N. A. | July 13, 2005 | |||
DBS Vickers Securities
|
Not Rated | N. A. | August 15, 2005 | |||
Auerbach Grayson
|
Sell | N. A. | August 15, 2005 |
„ | “We have cut FY05F earnings by 52% to factor in the 2Q05 weakness in olefin and refining margins and Deutsche Bank’s upward revision in Brent oil estimate to US$56.5/bbl for 2H05F. We regard privatisation by the parent, the prospect of which has been discussed at length in local media, as possible, but a technical difficulty may prevent it from happening soon, in our opinion... Given the high level of connected transactions between Y and X, we believe there are grounds for privatisation. However, the pricing difference (35%) between A and H shares presents a technical difficulty.” (Deutsche Bank, Jul 11) | |
„ | “Y has been suffering due to weak refining margins since 4Q04. The sharp drop in its 1Q05 earnings was mainly driven by poor performance in the refining business... The company cannot distribute dividend unless it offsets the accumulated loss of Rmb700 million.” (JP Morgan, Jul 13) | |
„ | “We expect the company’s profit level in 2H05 will depend on the improvement of the oil refining business. Based on the current situation, we won’t give an optimistic valuation. We believe the company’s oil refining business was still either in a loss or at the break-even point in July and August...” (Auerbach Grayson, Aug 15) | |
„ | “Dimmer outlook in 2H. We are more cautious about Y’s earnings outlook in the second half in view of the rising crude price in market. Unless China removes the price regulation of petroleum products in the short-term, we expect Y’s refineries to face higher losses in 2H, as the market crude price has advanced 12% since the end of 1H2005...” (DBS Vickers, Aug 15) |
3
„ | The chart below illustrates the share price performance of Y’s H-Share over the last 2 years | |
„ | This analysis includes ADR shares |
3.5 350.00 3.0 300.00 250.00 2.5 200.00 2.0 150.00 Shares) |
1.5 |
100.00 |
H-Share (HK$/share) 1.0 50.00 Trading Volume (Mn |
0.5 -Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 |
Volume (Millions of shares) Price (HK$/Share) 6 Month Average 12 Month Average |
4
200 186.5 176.2 180 161.9 160 140 120 100 85.7 81.7 74.1 78.2 80 60 40.6 44.0 40 20.7 20 8.3 6.8 Trading Volume (mm shares) - - 2.15 2.15 — 2.20 — 2.25 — 2.30 — 2.35 — 2.40 — 2.45 — 2.50 — 2.55 — 2.60 — 2.65 — 2.70 -2.19 2.24 2.29 2.34 2.39 2.44 2.49 2.54 2.59 2.64 2.69 2.75 Price (HKD) |
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Cumulative Volume (%) 20% 10% 0% 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 Price (HKD) |
Price | Last 10 Days | Last 20 Days | Last 30 Days | Last 36 Days | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trading | Trading | Trading | Trading | % of Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Volume | % of Total | Volume | % of Total | Volume | % of Total | Volume | H- Shares | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(MM) | H- Shares | (MM) | H- Shares | (MM) | H- Shares | (MM) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
< 2.15 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
2.15 - 2.19 |
8.3 | 0.9 | % | 8.3 | 0.9 | % | 8.3 | 0.9 | % | 8.3 | 0.9 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.20 - 2.24 |
14.6 | 1.5 | % | 14.6 | 1.5 | % | 20.7 | 2.1 | % | 20.7 | 2.1 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.25 - 2.29 |
29.9 | 3.1 | % | 31.7 | 3.3 | % | 74.1 | 7.7 | % | 74.1 | 7.7 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.30 - 2.34 |
13.3 | 1.4 | % | 27.5 | 2.8 | % | 40.6 | 4.2 | % | 40.6 | 4.2 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.35 - 2.39 |
30.4 | 3.2 | % | 46.0 | 4.8 | % | 78.2 | 8.1 | % | 78.2 | 8.1 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.40 - 2.44 |
61.8 | 6.4 | % | 68.0 | 7.0 | % | 149.4 | 15.5 | % | 161.9 | 16.8 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.45 - 2.49 |
5.4 | 0.6 | % | 5.4 | 0.6 | % | 77.1 | 8.0 | % | 85.7 | 8.9 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
2.50 - 2.54 |
— | — | — | — | 92.0 | 9.5 | % | 186.5 | 19.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2.55 - 2.59 |
— | — | — | — | 25.6 | 2.7 | % | 44.0 | 4.6 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2.60 - 2.64 |
— | — | — | — | 68.7 | 7.1 | % | 81.7 | 8.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2.65 - 2.69 |
— | — | — | — | 140.7 | 14.6 | % | 176.2 | 18.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2.70 - 2.75 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | 6.8 | 0.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
> 2.75 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
5
„ | In the 8 day period between March 8th and 17th, 329 million shares traded hands at a value of greater than HK$2.70/share which represents 34% of the outstanding shares. One day after this time period, 30% of shares were traded on a single day at a price below HK$2.70/share |
100% share 38% share turnover in |
3.5 turnover for share 350.00 36 days price over 3.0 HK$2.8/share 306% share 300.00 turnover in last 7 months 250.00 2.5 83% share turnover for share 200.00 2.0 price over HK$2.7/share 150.00 |
1.5 |
100.00 |
H-Share (HK$/share) 1.0 50.00 0.5 — Trading Volume (Mn Shares) |
Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Volume (Millions of shares) Price (HK$/Share) 6 Month Average HK$2.7/share HK$2.8/share |
6
„ | Based on HKSE guidance, the A-Share offer price should be at a similar premium to the H-Share Offer price | |
„ | Equivalent to 100% of H-Shares have traded at or below HK$2.70 per H share |
Ÿ | This price level represents the top-end of the trading spectrum and close to 100% of H share volumes traded below this level during the last trading cycle of 36 days and is at a 36.5% premium to the average 6 month price | ||
Ÿ | Applying similar 36.5% premium to average six month price of A shares, gives an A share of RMB 5.04 per share | ||
Ÿ | At this price level, 99.6% of A share volumes traded below this value during the last trading cycle of 53 days |
„ | Price of HK$2.80 per H share, represents a 42% premium to average 6 month price; applying similar premium to average six month price of A share, gives an A share price of RMB 5.25 per share | |
„ | The chart below illustrates the share price performance of Y’s A-Share since 2003 |
7.5 35.00 6.5 30.00 5.5 25.00 4.5 20.00 3.5 15.00 Shares) 2.5 10.00 |
A-Share (RMB/share) 1.5 5.00 Trading Volume (Mn |
0.5 -Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- |
03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 |
Volume (Millions of shares) Price (RMB/Share) 6 Month Average 12 Month Average |
7
50.0 100% 45.2 45.0 90% 40.0 80% 35.0 32.9 70% 29.7 29.0 30.0 60% 25.0 22.3 50% |
20.5 |
20.0 40% 15.0 13.1 30% 10.0 7.4 |
Cumulative Volume (%) Trading Volume (mm shares) 20% 5.0 10% 0.0 |
- 0% < 3.90 3.90 — 4.05 — 4.20 — 4.35 — 4.50 — 4.65 — 4.80 — 4.95 - |
3.90 4.05 4.20 4.35 4.50 4.65 4.80 4.95 5.10 4.04 4.19 4.34 4.49 4.64 4.79 4.94 5.10 |
Price (RMB) Price (RMB) |
Price | Last 15 Days | Last 30 Days | Last 45 Days | Last 53 Days | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trading | Trading | Trading | Trading | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Volume | % of Total | Volume | % of Total | Volume | % of Total | Volume | % of Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(MM) | A- Shares | (MM) | A- Shares | (MM) | A- Shares | (MM) | A- Shares | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
< 3.90 |
— | 0.0 | % | — | 0.0 | % | — | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
3.90 - 4.04 |
0.3 | 0.2 | % | 0.3 | 0.2 | % | 0.4 | 0.2 | % | 13.1 | 6.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.05 - 4.19 |
2.4 | 1.2 | % | 2.5 | 1.2 | % | 7.0 | 3.5 | % | 20.5 | 10.2 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.20 - 4.34 |
5.9 | 3.0 | % | 9.8 | 4.9 | % | 32.8 | 16.4 | % | 32.9 | 16.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.35 - 4.49 |
5.4 | 2.7 | % | 14.2 | 7.1 | % | 29.7 | 14.8 | % | 29.7 | 14.8 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.50 - 4.64 |
18.2 | 9.1 | % | 29.1 | 14.6 | % | 45.2 | 22.6 | % | 45.2 | 22.6 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.65 - 4.79 |
8.7 | 4.3 | % | 12.9 | 6.5 | % | 29.0 | 14.5 | % | 29.0 | 14.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.80 - 4.94 |
0.2 | 0.1 | % | 3.5 | 1.7 | % | 22.3 | 11.1 | % | 22.3 | 11.1 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
4.95 - 5.10 |
— | 0.0 | % | 1.2 | 0.6 | % | 7.4 | 3.7 | % | 7.4 | 3.7 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
> 5.10 |
— | 0.0 | % | — | 0.0 | % | — | 0.0 | % | — | 0.0 | % |
8
• | During 2005, Y’s A-shares have turned-over 4.8x and in the last 6 months, when Y’s share price has been below RMB 5.04 / share, the shares have turned close to 3x |
7.0 114% share turnover 25.00 for price over 310% share turnover 6.0 RMB5.25/share in last 6 months 20.00 |
5.0 15.00 |
4.0 144% share turnover 10.00 for price over 100% share A-Share (RMB/share) 3.0 RMB5.04/share turnover in 53 5.00 |
days Trading Volume (Mn Shares) |
2.0 -Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 |
Volume (Millions of shares) Price (RMB/Share) 6 Month Average RMB 5.04/share RMB 5.25/share |
9
„ | Headquartered in Jinzhou, Liaoning, Q produces and markets gasoline, diesel and organic chemical products | |
„ | China Petroleum Gas Co. and China United Oil Co. are the major suppliers for Q,
accounting for approximately 90% of the supply of crude oil |
|
„ | In 2004, Q processed approximately 6.1 million tons of crude | |
„ | X holds 80.95% stake in Q with the remaining 19.05% free-float | |
• There are no institutions owning greater than 0.1% | ||
„ | Public news sources suggest that Shenglong Securities covers Q and recommends it as a sell |
Market Cap: RMB 3,032 million 25 6.5 Firm Value: RMB 3,378 million |
5.5 20 4.5 15 3.5 10 2.5 (Mn Shares) |
5 A-Share (RMB/share) 1.5 Trading Volume |
0.5 0 Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- |
03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 Volume (Millions of shares) Price (RMB/Share) 6 Month Average 3 Month Average 12 Month Average |
9 Months Ended | ||||||||
(RMB mm) | 2004 | 2005 | ||||||
Revenue |
15,038.3 | 13,533.5 | ||||||
EBIT |
357.9 | (783.0 | ) | |||||
Net Income |
267.7 | (800.1 | ) | |||||
Total Assets |
2,944.6 | 2,521.1 | ||||||
Cash Flow from Operations |
(271.5 | ) | 160.1 | |||||
10
„ | During 2005, Q’s A-shares have turned-over 4.8x and in the last 6 months, when Q’s share price has been below both RMB 4.2 / share and RMB 4.4 / share, the shares have turned close to 3.7x |
90.8% share turnover for a 100% share price over both RMB4.2 and turnover in 30 6.0 RMB4.4/share days 25 5.0 369% share turnover 20 in last 6 months 4.0 15 |
3.0 10 |
A-Share (RMB / share) 2.0 5 1.0 0 Trading Volume (Mn Shares) |
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Volume (Millions of shares) Price (RMB/Share) 6 Month Average RMB 4.2 / share RMB 4.4 / share |
11
„ | Headquartered in Panjin, Liaoning Province, Z is principally engaged in exploration, development and sale of oil and natural gas | |
„ | In 2004, Z produced approximately 0.9 million tons of crude oil, generating approximately 99.3% of total revenue | |
„ | In 2004, the Company also produced approximately 18.6 million cubic meters of natural gas | |
„ | PetroChina holds 81.82% stake in Z with remaining 18.18% free-float |
• | There are no institutions owning greater than 0.1% |
„ | Public news sources suggest that Shenglong Securities covers Z and recommends it as a sell |
11.5 30 |
Market Cap: RMB 8,052 million 10.5 Firm Value: RMB 6,194 million 25 9.5 20 8.5 15 7.5 10 |
A-Share (RMB/share) 6.5 5 5.5 0 Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Trading Volume (Mn Shares) |
03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 Volume (Millions of shares) Price (RMB/Share) 6 Month Average 3 Month Average 12 Month Average |
Note: As of October 25, 2005 (Source: Bloomberg) |
6 Months Ended | ||||||||
(RMB mm) | 2004 | 2005 | ||||||
Revenue |
1,436.5 | 794.8 | ||||||
EBIT |
943.0 | 529.4 | ||||||
Net Income |
618.6 | 367.7 | ||||||
Total Assets |
3,399.4 | 3,332.9 | ||||||
Cash Flow from Operations |
830.9 | 521.3 | ||||||
12
• | During 2005, Z’s A-shares have turned-over 2.6x and the shares have not exceeded either RMB 8.05 / share or RMB 8.42 / share |
0% shares traded above |
100% share RMB8.05 or RMB8.42 / share turnover in 52 |
8.5 days 20 |
171% share 8.0 turnover in last 6 |
15 months 7.5 7.0 10 6.5 5 |
A-Share (RMB / share) 6.0 |
5.5 0 Trading Volumen (Mn Shares) |
Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Volume (Millions of shares) Price (RMB/Share) 6 Month Average RMB 8.1 / share RMB 8.4 / share |
13
14
This ‘SC 13E3/A’ Filing | Date | Other Filings | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Filed on: | 12/23/05 | SC 13E3/A, SC 14D9/A, SC TO-T/A | ||
10/26/05 | ||||
10/25/05 | ||||
10/21/05 | ||||
8/15/05 | ||||
7/13/05 | ||||
7/11/05 | ||||
List all Filings |