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BellRing Brands, Inc. – ‘8-K’ for 11/17/22 – ‘EX-99.2 Q4 2022 EARN’

On:  Thursday, 11/17/22, at 5:01pm ET   ·   For:  11/17/22   ·   Accession #:  1772016-22-60   ·   File #:  1-39093

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  As Of               Filer                 Filing    For·On·As Docs:Size

11/17/22  BellRing Brands, Inc.             8-K:2,9    11/17/22   12:3M

Current Report   —   Form 8-K

Filing Table of Contents

Document/Exhibit                   Description                      Pages   Size 

 1: 8-K         Current Report                                      HTML     36K 
 2: EX-99.1 Q4 2022 EARN  Ex-99.1 Q4 2022 Earnings Release          HTML    269K 
 3: EX-99.2 Q4 2022 EARN  Ex-99.2 Q4 2022 Earnings Supplemental     HTML     25K 
                Deck                                                             
 7: R1          Cover                                               HTML     45K 
10: XML         IDEA XML File -- Filing Summary                      XML     12K 
 8: XML         XBRL Instance -- brbr-20221117_htm                   XML     22K 
 9: EXCEL       IDEA Workbook of Financial Reports                  XLSX      8K 
 5: EX-101.LAB  XBRL Labels -- brbr-20221117_lab                     XML     69K 
 6: EX-101.PRE  XBRL Presentations -- brbr-20221117_pre              XML     34K 
 4: EX-101.SCH  XBRL Schema -- brbr-20221117                         XSD     10K 
11: JSON        XBRL Instance as JSON Data -- MetaLinks               12±    17K 
12: ZIP         XBRL Zipped Folder -- 0001772016-22-000060-xbrl      Zip    106K 


‘EX-99.2 Q4 2022 EARN’   —   Ex-99.2 Q4 2022 Earnings Supplemental Deck


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Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Supplemental Presentation November 17, 2022


 
• the ability of BellRing’s third party contract manufacturers to produce an amount of BellRing’s products that enables BellRing to meet customer and consumer demand for the products; • BellRing’s reliance on a limited number of third-party suppliers to provide certain ingredients and packaging; • significant volatility in the cost or availability of inputs to BellRing’s business (including freight, raw materials, packaging, energy, labor and other supplies); • the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including negative impacts on the global economy and capital markets, the health of BellRing's employees, BellRing's ability and the ability of its third party contract manufacturers to manufacture and deliver its products, operating costs, demand for its on-the-go products and its operations generally; • BellRing’s ability to anticipate and respond to changes in consumer and customer preferences and behaviors and introduce new products; • consolidation in BellRing’s distribution channels; • BellRing’s ability to expand existing market penetration and enter into new markets; • the loss of, a significant reduction of purchases by or the bankruptcy of a major customer; • legal and regulatory factors, such as compliance with existing laws and regulations, as well as new laws and regulations and changes to existing laws and regulations and interpretations thereof, affecting BellRing’s business, including current and future laws and regulations regarding food safety, advertising, labeling, tax matters and environmental matters; • fluctuations in BellRing’s business due to changes in its promotional activities and seasonality; • BellRing’s ability to maintain the net selling prices of its products and manage promotional activities with respect to its products; Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward- looking statements are made based on known events and circumstances at the time of release, and as such, are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. These forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding BellRing Brands, Inc.’s (“BellRing,” the “Company,” “we,” “us,” or “our”) prospective financial and operating performance. These forward-looking statements are sometimes identified from the use of forward-looking words such as “believe,” “should,” “could,” “potential,” “continue,” “expect,” “project,” “estimate,” “predict,” “anticipate,” “aim,” “intend,” “plan,” “forecast,” “target,” “is likely,” “will,” “can,” “may” or “would” or the negative of these terms or similar expressions, and include all statements regarding future performance, earnings projections, events or developments. There are a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made herein. THESE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, THE FOLLOWING: • BellRing’s dependence on sales from its ready-to-drink (“RTD”) protein shakes; • BellRing’s ability to continue to compete in its product categories and its ability to retain its market position and favorable perceptions of its brands; • disruptions or inefficiencies in BellRing’s supply chain, including as a result of BellRing’s reliance on third party suppliers or manufacturers for the manufacturing of many of its products, pandemics (including the COVID-19 pandemic) and other outbreaks of contagious diseases, labor shortages, fires and evacuations related thereto, changes in weather conditions, natural disasters, agricultural diseases and pests and other events beyond BellRing’s control; • BellRing’s dependence on a limited number of third-party contract manufacturers for the manufacturing of most of its products, including one manufacturer for the majority of its RTD protein shakes; 2


 
• costs, business disruptions and reputational damage associated with information technology failures, cybersecurity incidents and/or information security breaches; • impairment in the carrying value of goodwill or other intangibles; • BellRing’s ability to identify, complete and integrate or otherwise effectively execute acquisitions or other strategic transactions and effectively manage its growth; • BellRing’s ability to satisfy the requirements of Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002; • significant differences in BellRing’s actual operating results from any guidance BellRing may give regarding its performance; • BellRing’s ability to hire and retain talented personnel, employee absenteeism, labor strikes, work stoppages or unionization efforts; and • other risks and uncertainties described in BellRing’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not rely upon forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. Although BellRing believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, BellRing cannot guarantee that the future results, levels of activity, performance or events and circumstances reflected in the forward- looking statements will be achieved or occur. Moreover, BellRing undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this presentation to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in its expectations. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements (Cont’d) (CONTINUED FROM PRIOR PAGE): • BellRing’s high leverage, its ability to obtain additional financing (including both secured and unsecured debt) and its ability to service its outstanding debt (including covenants that restrict the operation of its business); • the accuracy of BellRing’s market data and attributes and related information; • changes in estimates in critical accounting judgments; • Uncertain or unfavorable economic conditions that limit customer and consumer demand for BellRing’s products or increase its costs; • risks related to BellRing’s ongoing relationship with Post Holdings, Inc. (“Post”) following BellRing's separation from Post and the transactions related thereto (together, the “Spin-off”), including BellRing’s obligations under various agreements with Post; • conflicting interests or the appearance of conflicting interests resulting from certain of BellRing’s directors also serving as officers or directors of Post; • risks related to the previously completed Spin-off, including BellRing’s inability to take certain actions because such actions could jeopardize the tax-free status of the Distribution and BellRing’s possible responsibility for U.S. federal tax liabilities related to the Distribution; • the ultimate impact litigation or other regulatory matters may have on BellRing; • risks associated with BellRing’s international business; • BellRing’s ability to protect its intellectual property and other assets and to continue to use third party intellectual property subject to intellectual property licenses; 3


 
Market and Industry Data This presentation includes industry and trade association data, forecasts and information that were prepared based, in part, upon data, forecasts and information obtained from independent trade associations, industry publications and surveys and other independent sources available to BellRing. Some data also is based on BellRing management’s good faith estimates, which are derived from management’s knowledge of the industry and from independent sources. These third party publications and surveys generally state that the information included therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that the publications and surveys can give no assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. BellRing has not independently verified any of the data from third party sources nor has it ascertained the underlying economic assumptions on which such data are based. Similarly, BellRing believes its internal research is reliable, even though such research has not been verified by any independent sources and BellRing cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Trademarks and Service Marks Logos, trademarks, trade names and service marks mentioned in this presentation, including BellRing®, BellRing Brands®, Premier Protein®, Dymatize®, PowerBar®, Premier Protein Clear®, ISO.100®, Elite Mass®, Elite Whey Protein®, Elite 100% Whey®, Super Mass Gainer®, All9 Amino®, Pebbles®, Dunkin®, PREW.O®, Athlete’s BCAA®, PowerBar Clean WheyTM, PowerBar Protein PlusTM, Protein Nut2TM, PowerBar EnergizeTM and Joint Juice®, are currently the property of, or are under license by, BellRing or one of its subsidiaries. BellRing or one of its subsidiaries owns or has rights to use the trademarks, service marks and trade names that are used in conjunction with the operation of BellRing or its subsidiaries’ businesses. Some of the more important trademarks that BellRing or one of its subsidiaries owns or has rights to use that appear in this presentation may be registered in the U.S. and other jurisdictions. Each logo, trademark, trade name or service mark of any other company appearing in this presentation is owned or used under license by such company. Additional Information Prospective Information Any prospective information provided in this presentation regarding BellRing’s future performance, including BellRing’s plans, expectations, estimates and similar statements, represents BellRing management’s estimates as of November 17, 2022 only and are qualified by, and subject to, the assumptions and the other information set forth on the slide captioned “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.” Prospective information provided in this presentation regarding BellRing’s plans, expectations, estimates and similar statements contained in this presentation are based upon a number of assumptions and estimates that, while they may be presented with numerical specificity, are inherently subject to business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, including the COVID-19 pandemic, many of which are beyond BellRing’s control, are based upon specific assumptions with respect to future business decisions, some of which will change, and are necessarily speculative in nature. It can be expected that some or all of the assumptions of the estimates will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Accordingly, the information set forth herein is only an estimate as of November 17, 2022, and actual results will vary from the estimates set forth herein. It should be recognized that the reliability of any forecasted financial data diminishes the farther in the future that the data is forecast. In light of the foregoing, investors should put all prospective information in context and not rely on it. Any failure to successfully implement BellRing’s operating strategy or the occurrence of the events or circumstances set forth under “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” could result in the actual operating results being different than the estimates set forth herein, and such differences may be adverse and material. 4


 
Q4 FY2022 Consumption and Key Metrics Executive Summary ● Premier Protein ready-to-drink (“RTD”) shake consumption was down (-5%1 in the last 13 weeks) as we lap a quarter of heavy promotion and temporarily discontinued flavors. However, consumption has shown steady improvement in FY2022. ○ Shipments outpaced consumption in the back half as we rebuilt trade inventory levels. Many of our major retailers are now at target levels. ● Premier Protein’s key metrics remain strong and reaffirm a long runway for sustained growth. ○ Market share in tracked channels is stable, but slightly down versus year ago. ○ Total distribution points (“TDPs”) remain at healthy levels. ○ Household penetration is down versus year ago but buy rate is higher, signifying loyal, high- value buyers are increasing consumption while deal-seeking buyers temporarily leave the brand. ● Dymatize Q4 FY2022 U.S. powder consumption experienced strong growth of +32%1 in tracked and untracked channels. ○ TDPs have reached record highs with a significant runway for growth. ○ Marketing and promotional activity have restarted. Notes: 1. NielsenIQ xAOC+C 13 weeks ended October 1, 2022 and management estimates of untracked channels for the 13 weeks ended October 2, 2022. 5


 
20 22 19 18 12 21 10 18 13 13 9 8 11 9 10 12 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 4 W/E 08/07/21 4 W/E 09/04/21 4 W/E 10/02/21 4 W/E 10/30/21 4 W/E 11/27/21 4 W/E 12/25/21 4 W/E 01/22/22 4 W/E 02/19/22 4 W/E 03/19/22 4 W/E 04/16/22 4 W/E 05/14/22 4 W/E 06/11/22 4 W/E 07/09/22 4 W/E 08/06/22 4 W/E 09/03/22 4 W/E 10/01/22 RTD Liquids Category Liquids Category Continues to Outpace Pre-Covid Growth Rates Liquids Category Growth Rate L13 +10.3% L52 +12.2% YOY % Δ Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C through October 1, 2022. Historical growth 5% $%Chg vs YA: 6


 
Consumption Trends Down vs. Year Ago Due to Lapping Promotional Activity Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C 13 and 52 weeks ended October 1, 2022 and management estimates of untracked channels for the 13 and 52 weeks ended October 2, 2022. 7 Premier Protein RTD Shakes Sales vs. Prior Year Channel 13 Weeks 52 Weeks Club -10.5% -1.8% Mass +12.4% +4.2% Food +2.3% -4.1% eCommerce -7.7% -1.0% Total Consumption (tracked + untracked channels) -5.3% -0.6% Total Tracked +2.0% +1.9% Total Untracked -12.0% -3.0%


 
Premier Protein RTD Shakes Consumption Showing Steady Improvement in FY2022 YOY % Δ Q2 +20% Q3 +46% Q4 +30% Q1 +10% Q2 -2% Q4 -5% Q1 +28% Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C and management estimates of untracked channels. 8 Q3 -2%


 
Q4 Shipments Outpaced Consumption as Customers Build Inventory to Target Levels Shipments tracking with Consumption Promotional Load-In, Seasonality Impact Consumption Outpaced Shipments Trade Inventory Increase Trade Inventory Increase Promotional De-Load Premier Protein RTD Shakes Consumption vs. Shipments (13 Week Quarters) Consumption Outpaced Shipments Trade Inventory Increase, Seasonality Impact Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C and management estimates of untracked channels. 9 Added ~2 weeks of trade inventory; close to target levels


 
Premier Protein RTD Shake TDPs Remain Stable Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C through October 1, 2022. 10 T D P s % A C V


 
5.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 6.2 4.7 5.5 6.7 7.7 6.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 52 W/E Oct 22 Premier Protein Total Brand & RTD Shakes Penetration HH Pen - Premier Protein Brand HH Pen - Premier Protein RTD Shakes Household Penetration Softened as Deal-Seeking Buyers Temporarily Exited Due to Lack of Promotions; Buy Rate Increased as Loyal Customers Bought More 30g Shake Repeat Rate 56% 52% 53% 51% +22% Liquids 22.8 HH Pen Liquids 24.8 HH Pen +17% +18% +22% +14% +15% -24% -23% 50% 30g Shake Buy Rate $75 $69 $72 $70 $76 Notes: NielsenIQ HH panel 52wks ending October 1, 2022. Liquids refers to the liquid sub-category of the convenient nutrition category. Calendar Year (“CY”). NielsenIQ metrics such as penetration are subject to potential restatement or revisions due to market definition changes or late reporters. 11 +13% Liquids 25.8 HH Pen


 
Premier Protein RTD Shakes Share is Stable Despite Pullback in Flavors and Promotion Monthly Premier Protein RTD Shakes $ Share % Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C through October 1, 2022. 16.5% 18.4% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 12


 
U.S. Dymatize Powders Experiencing Strong Growth U.S. Dymatize Powders Sales vs. Prior Year Channel 13 Weeks 52 Weeks eCommerce +36.5% +33.8% Specialty/All Other +41.2% +23.3% Mass +82.0% +78.3% Club -100% -17.7% Food +94.9% +75.3% Total Consumption (tracked + untracked channels) +31.5% +33.5% Total Tracked +20.7% +39.6% Total Untracked +37.6% +30.4% • Tracked and Untracked Consumption Represents ~75% of Total U.S. Business Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C 13 and 52 weeks ended October 1, 2022 and management estimates of untracked channels for the 13 and 52 weeks ended October 2, 2022. 13


 
U.S. Dymatize Powders Continue Strong Track Record of Growth YOY % Δ Q2 +83% Q3 +103% Q4 +50% Q1 +48% Q1 +58% Q2 +46% Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C and management estimates of untracked channels. 14 Q3 +21% Q4 +32%


 
U.S. Dymatize Powders TDP Levels Reach All Time High Notes: NielsenIQ xAOC+C through October 1, 2022. 15 T D P s % A C V


 


 

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